Bitcoin traded above $64,300 on Wednesday as investors prepared for a closely watched Federal Reserve decision. The cryptocurrency gained around 0.7% while the dollar eased from a one-month high, although expectations of higher rates continued to limit risk appetite.
In this article, experts at Fonndure examine whether Bitcoin can extend its recovery toward $68,000 or whether a hawkish Fed message could send the market back toward support.
Federal Reserve Uncertainty Dominates Sentiment
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but the outcome is less predictable than many recent meetings.
Markets have assigned roughly a one-in-three chance to an immediate increase as higher oil prices renew concern about inflation.
That uncertainty is keeping Bitcoin within a relatively narrow range before the announcement.
A hawkish message could lift the dollar and Treasury yields, reducing demand for speculative assets. A softer outlook could encourage traders to rebuild positions in cryptocurrencies and equities.
Parabolic SAR Shows a Tentative Recovery
The first chart uses the Parabolic SAR indicator, which places dots above or below price to show the likely direction of the short-term trend.
Dots below the market generally indicate bullish momentum, while dots above it suggest sellers have control.
The latest structure points to a tentative upward trend, but Bitcoin has not yet produced a decisive breakout.
Holding above the SAR points would support another move toward $66,000. A reversal beneath the indicator could return attention to $62,000.
Image 1: Bitcoin Trend With Parabolic SAR
Resistance Begins Near $66,000
The first important resistance area sits around $66,000. A sustained move above this level could expose $68,000, followed by the psychological $70,000 barrier.
A daily close above $68,000 would provide stronger confirmation that buyers are rebuilding control.
Further gains would become more likely if the Fed avoids raising rates, the dollar weakens, or risk markets respond positively.
Without that support, rallies toward $66,000 may continue to attract profit-taking.
Support Remains Near $62,000
The first major support area is positioned around $62,000. Holding above this level would preserve the recovery attempt and leave the market within its recent range.
A break below $62,000 could expose $60,000.
A sustained decline beneath $60,000 would weaken the broader structure and increase the risk of another move toward $58,000.
The $60,000 level may attract buyers because of its psychological importance, but a strongly hawkish Fed outcome could overwhelm that demand.
Chaikin Money Flow Is Close to Neutral
The second chart uses Chaikin Money Flow to compare buying and selling pressure over a fixed period.
Positive readings suggest capital is moving into the market, while negative readings indicate distribution.
The indicator remains close to neutral, showing that investors have not committed strongly in either direction.
A move clearly above zero would support a break toward $66,000 and $68,000.
A drop deeper into negative territory would suggest sellers are becoming more active and increase the risk of a retreat toward $62,000.
Image 2: Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart With Chaikin Money Flow
Higher Bond Yields Remain a Risk
Government bond yields have remained elevated as investors consider whether inflation may force central banks to keep borrowing costs high.
Higher yields can weaken Bitcoin because investors can receive more attractive returns from lower-risk assets. They also tighten financial conditions and reduce speculative activity.
Bitcoin may struggle to build a sustained rally while real yields and the dollar remain firm.
A decline in yields after the Fed meeting would improve the outlook for risk assets.
Oil Prices Complicate the Rate Outlook
Energy prices have become an important part of the Federal Reserve debate.
Higher oil costs can increase transport, production, and consumer expenses, potentially slowing progress on inflation.
Persistent energy inflation could keep interest rates restrictive and limit Bitcoin’s upside.
A more durable decline in crude prices would reduce pressure on the Fed and support a more favorable environment for cryptocurrencies.
The Dollar Remains an Important Signal
The US dollar index recently slipped toward 101.33 after touching a one-month high around 101.63. Bitcoin gained modestly during the same period.
A weaker dollar often supports Bitcoin because it improves liquidity conditions and makes dollar-priced assets more attractive to international buyers.
Bitcoin’s recovery may need the dollar to continue moving lower after the Fed announcement.
If the dollar returns to its recent peak, Bitcoin could struggle to hold above $64,000.
Trading Implications
Bitcoin retains a neutral-to-positive short-term outlook while trading above $62,000.
A confirmed break above $66,000 could expose $68,000 and $70,000.
A move below $62,000 would weaken immediate momentum, while a sustained break beneath $60,000 could shift attention toward $58,000.
A softer Fed tone, falling bond yields, and a weaker dollar would support the bullish case. Higher rates and renewed inflation concerns would increase downside risk.
Conclusion
Bitcoin remains above $64,000 as traders wait for one of the Federal Reserve’s most uncertain decisions in recent years.
Resistance is positioned near $66,000, $68,000, and $70,000. Support can be found around $62,000, $60,000, and $58,000.
The technical picture is beginning to improve, but Bitcoin still needs a clear break above $66,000 before the recovery becomes more convincing.