West Texas Intermediate crude climbed above $84.70 per barrel on Friday as traders monitored tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The market was also heading for a monthly gain of roughly 22% after conflict-related disruptions tightened regional supply.
In this article, experts at Sylverix examine whether WTI can extend its recovery toward $88 or whether improving shipping flows could send prices back toward support.
Shipping Data Drives Daily Price Moves
Oil traders are watching the number of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Two large crude carriers recently completed the journey, but overall traffic remained limited. Several vessels also changed course after Iranian forces stopped two tankers.
The market is reacting to physical shipping movements rather than geopolitical headlines alone.
More tanker traffic would reduce immediate supply concern. Further stoppages could quickly push prices higher.
Monthly Gains Reflect a Tighter Market
WTI has risen sharply during July as conflict affected exports and increased shipping insurance costs.
Brent and WTI were on course for monthly gains of approximately 23% and 22%, respectively.
Oil’s July advance has been supported by lower available supply rather than demand optimism alone.
Prices could therefore remain elevated even if global economic growth slows.
The ATR Trailing Stop Supports the Recovery
The first chart uses candlesticks alongside an Average True Range trailing stop. ATR measures recent volatility and helps show whether a trend remains intact.
WTI is trading above the trailing stop, suggesting buyers retain control of the short-term direction.
A continued rise would keep $86 and $88 in focus. A close beneath the line would warn that the recovery is weakening.
Image 1: WTI Crude Candlestick Chart With ATR Trailing Stop
Resistance Appears Near $86
The first important resistance area sits around $86 per barrel. A sustained move above this level could expose $88, followed by $90.
A daily close above $88 would confirm that buyers are extending the July rally rather than reacting to temporary shipping concerns.
Further gains would become more likely if tanker traffic declines again.
Support Begins Around $82
The first support area is positioned near $82. Holding above this level would preserve the recovery and leave another attempt at $86 possible.
A break below $82 could expose $80, followed by $78.
A sustained decline beneath $80 would weaken the bullish structure and suggest the geopolitical premium is fading.
The PPO Shows Positive Momentum
The second chart uses the Percentage Price Oscillator, or PPO.
The indicator compares two exponential moving averages. Readings above zero generally support bullish momentum.
The PPO remains positive and above its signal line, confirming that upward pressure is still active.
A wider positive gap would support a move toward $86 and $88. A bearish crossover could signal a pullback toward $82.
Image 2: WTI Crude Four-Hour Chart With Percentage Price Oscillator
Supply Disruptions May Continue
Analysts expect oil prices to remain supported by Middle East shipping disruptions during the rest of 2026.
Recent forecasts placed average Brent prices near $85.22 per barrel and WTI near $80.14, with estimates pointing to a supply deficit of between 1 million and 2.6 million barrels per day.
Persistent disruption could keep available supply tighter than headline production figures suggest.
Crude may still struggle to reach buyers if key routes become unsafe or expensive.
Demand Growth Is Less Certain
Forecasts for 2026 consumption growth have been reduced as high prices and slower economic activity weigh on fuel use.
Slower demand growth may limit how far oil can rise without a fresh supply shock.
Prices above $90 could also encourage consumers and businesses to reduce fuel use.
OPEC+ Policy Adds Another Variable
OPEC+ may consider pausing planned production increases later in the year if the market remains unstable.
Actual output is already below official targets because conflict has affected Gulf exports.
A pause in supply increases would reinforce the bullish case, particularly if shipping disruptions continue.
Faster restoration of exports would make resistance near $88 harder to break.
Refinery Disruptions Support Fuel Prices
Attacks on refineries in the Middle East and Russia have tightened gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel supplies.
European diesel margins recently reached $74.66 per barrel, while jet fuel margins rose above $80.
Strong refining margins can support crude demand even when economic activity is uneven.
Trading Implications
WTI retains a cautiously bullish outlook while trading above $82 and its ATR trailing stop.
A confirmed break above $86 could expose $88 and $90.
A move below $82 would weaken immediate momentum, while a sustained decline beneath $80 could shift attention toward $78.
Further shipping disruption would support higher prices. Improving tanker flows and weaker demand would increase downside risk.
Conclusion
WTI crude is approaching $85 as restricted shipping and supply uncertainty continue to support the market.
Resistance is positioned near $86, $88, and $90. Support can be found around $82, $80, and $78.
The technical picture remains positive, but oil must clear $86 before the next stage of the rally is confirmed.