Brokers from Risance dive into the latest EUR/USD technical outlook, as the pair holds a bullish intraday bias while the broader medium term trend remains at a crucial crossroads.
Intraday Bias Remains Tilted To The Upside
EUR/USD continues to show a constructive short term picture following its rebound from the 1.1323 low. According to the latest technical outlook, the recovery is expected to extend toward the 1.1621 cluster resistance, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 1.2081 to 1.1323, calculated at 1.1613.
A decisive break above this zone would reinforce the bullish case and open the door toward the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1791. This scenario would confirm that buyers have regained meaningful control after the recent pullback, encouraging further accumulation from momentum oriented traders.
However, the bullish structure is not without risk. A break below the 1.1454 minor support would shift the near term bias back to the downside, exposing the pair to the 1.1323 to 1.1352 support zone once again. This would suggest the current rebound is losing steam rather than developing into a sustained recovery.
Key Resistance Levels In Focus
The 1.1621 area stands out as the most important technical hurdle in the coming sessions. Multiple technical signals converge around this zone, making it a natural point where profit taking or renewed selling pressure could emerge.
Should EUR/USD clear this resistance convincingly, the path toward 1.1791 would become the next logical target. Traders are watching closely whether momentum indicators, including a recovering MACD, can sustain the current push. A rising MACD histogram alongside price action above 1.1621 would strengthen the argument that the short term correction has run its course.
On the other hand, failure to hold above 1.1454 would signal hesitation among buyers, and a retest of the 1.1323 to 1.1352 zone would likely follow, keeping the pair range bound in the near term.
Bigger Picture Still Hangs In The Balance
Beyond the immediate price swings, the broader medium term outlook remains the central focus for many market participants. The key level under scrutiny is the 38.2% retracement of the rally from 1.0176 to 1.2081, positioned at 1.1353.
A decisive break below 1.1353 would revive the case for a medium term bearish trend reversal, following the earlier rejection at the 1.2000 key cluster resistance. In that scenario, further downside toward the 61.8% retracement at 1.0904 could not be ruled out, representing a significant shift in the pair’s longer term structure.
Conversely, a strong rebound from the 1.1353 area, followed by a break above the 1.1621 resistance, would help preserve the medium term bullish bias. This would suggest that the broader uptrend from 1.0176 remains intact despite the recent volatility near the 1.2081 high.
What Could Change The Outlook
Momentum readings currently offer a mixed but improving picture. The RSI remains within a neutral to constructive range, while the MACD shows early signs of a bullish crossover on the daily chart, hinting that selling pressure may be fading.
Market participants will also be watching upcoming economic data releases and central bank commentary, which could accelerate a move in either direction. Inflation figures and employment data out of both the Eurozone and the United States remain especially relevant, as any surprise reading tends to trigger sharp intraday swings.
Given the proximity of price to both the 1.1621 resistance and the 1.1454 support, volatility is likely to remain elevated in the sessions ahead.
Traders are encouraged to monitor how price behaves around these pivotal levels rather than assuming a directional move prematurely, since both the intraday and bigger picture scenarios remain contingent on confirmation from a decisive breakout or breakdown.
Conclusion
EUR/USD sits at a technically significant juncture, balancing a constructive intraday setup against a still undecided medium term trend. The immediate focus remains on the 1.1621 resistance cluster, with a break higher targeting 1.1791, while a slip below 1.1454 would expose the pair to the 1.1323 support zone.
Zooming out, the 1.1353 level continues to serve as the line in the sand for the broader trend, separating a potential bearish reversal from continued medium term strength. As always in EUR/USD trading strategies, patience around these key technical zones will likely reward disciplined traders over impulsive positioning.