Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are all trading well below their late-2025 peaks, confirming that the crypto market remains firmly in bear territory after months of declining prices. Brokers from Rubinax dive into this topic, noting that analysts at a major asset management firm have identified five historical factors that typically coincide with the end of these bear phases.
Encouragingly, most of these factors appear to already be shifting in holders’ favor, even if the picture isn’t uniformly positive across the board.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Points to a Bottom
Bitcoin’s well-known four-year cycle, tied to the halving event that cuts mining rewards in half, is widely viewed as the single most important factor in determining when bear markets end. Its October 2025 peak fell squarely within the 480 to 550-day post-halving window that has bracketed every market top since 2016.
If that historical pattern holds, the cyclical low would arrive sometime between late September and mid-November 2026. Alternatively, given the unusually high degree of institutional control over Bitcoin’s circulating supply today, it’s plausible the low has already been reached, meaning the rest of the year could bring choppy sideways action rather than further declines.
Pending Regulation Could Be a Major Catalyst
Regulatory clarity is the second factor, and it’s especially relevant right now. New crypto rules have historically coincided with shifts from bear to bull markets, and the pending Clarity Act, which would settle which regulators oversee which crypto assets, has a low but real chance of passing before the end of 2026.
If signed into law, this legislation would likely serve as a major green light for a new bull market. XRP, Ethereum, and Solana stand to benefit more directly than Bitcoin, since their ecosystems are more exposed to regulatory and compliance questions.
Real-World Tokenization Is Already Gaining Traction
The third factor, a breakout use case catching on, appears to be happening in real time. Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, the practice of representing stocks, bonds, and debt as crypto tokens, is currently responsible for $34.6 billion in on-chain value.
As tokenization-related capital continues flowing into crypto, it creates a tailwind for the broader sector. Solana, Ethereum, and XRP are again positioned as the most likely beneficiaries, as all three networks compete intensely to become the preferred home for different categories of tokenized assets.
Institutional Flows Are Turning, But Momentum Has Faded
Institutional capital flows represent the fourth factor, and the recent data here is mixed but improving. A $4.5 billion outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs in June was quickly reversed by $510 million in inflows over just three days in early July, suggesting sentiment may have already turned a corner.
That said, this narrative is no longer fresh news to the market. Because most participants are already pricing in strong institutional flows, particularly through crypto ETFs, it will likely take considerably more capital to meaningfully shift broader investor sentiment from here.
Monetary Policy Remains the Weakest Link
The final and arguably weakest factor right now is monetary policy. Past crypto bear markets have typically ended when the Federal Reserve pivots toward cutting interest rates, since lower rates tend to boost risk assets broadly.
That shift isn’t happening currently. The Federal Open Market Committee left rates unchanged in June, stopped offering forward guidance, and is reportedly penciling in a rate hike before year-end rather than a cut, while ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues pushing energy prices, and inflation, higher.
What This Means for Crypto Investors
Taken together, three of the five key drivers Bitcoin cycle timing, regulatory progress, and tokenization adoption are currently moving in a bullish direction, helping to build a more constructive backdrop for the broader digital asset market, including Bitcoin.
At the same time, institutional flows are improving, reflecting growing participation from large investors, although their overall market impact may be somewhat limited given that much of this demand has already been anticipated.
The more immediate challenge comes from monetary policy, which remains the clearest headwind. The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a relatively restrictive stance, and higher interest rates tend to weigh on risk assets, potentially prolonging the current bear phase rather than ending it.
That said, history offers an important signal: the first Fed rate cut has often marked the beginning of a new crypto bull cycle. As a result, the timing of any policy shift is a critical variable. Investors should watch closely for signs of easing, as such a move could act as the starting catalyst for renewed momentum across the crypto market.
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