Analysts at AchievementsAI take a closer look at the latest WTI Crude Oil picture, as the commodity rebounds from a two day correction while ongoing disruptions to key energy supply routes keep markets on edge.
Oil Attracts Fresh Bids After Two-Day Pullback
West Texas Intermediate futures trade 0.4% higher around $81.40 during early European trading on Friday. The price is regaining ground following a two day corrective move, as financial markets remain concerned about the continued closure of key energy supply passages in the Middle East.
TD Securities analysts point to tight conditions persisting across both crude and refined product markets as a factor likely to keep pushing prices higher over time, framing the recent dip as a short-lived pause rather than a break from the broader positive trajectory for oil.
Vessel Traffic Through Hormuz Remains Well Below Normal
Commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz picked up slightly on Thursday, but remained below the month’s daily average of 12, based on Kpler data tracked through August so far, according to Reuters. That’s a steep drop compared to the 130 to 140 vessels that typically made the crossing each day before the conflict began.
Navigation through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which together account for 27% of global energy supply, remains minimal, with both passages effectively closed due to blockades from the United States and Iran aligned Houthi forces respectively.
Meanwhile, Iran has stated that Tehran is not currently in discussions with the US regarding reopening Hormuz, though it is reportedly in the final stages of talks with Oman regarding collective management of navigation through the strait.
OPEC Revises Demand Forecast Lower
On the demand side, OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for 2026 down to 580,000 barrels per day, from the prior estimate of 780,000 barrels per day. This downward revision introduces a note of caution into the broader supply and demand picture, even as supply side disruptions continue providing underlying price support.
The combination of tightening supply due to strait closures and softer projected demand creates a somewhat mixed fundamental backdrop, though the immediate price action suggests supply concerns are currently carrying more weight with traders than the longer term demand outlook.
Technical Structure Points To Constructive Near Term Bias
On the daily chart, WTI trades at $80.76, holding a constructive near term bias as it remains above the 20 day EMA at $80.04, suggesting underlying demand following the recent recovery from the mid $70s. With the RSI reading around 51, momentum sits in fairly balanced territory, indicating buyers have the upper hand for now without pushing the market into overheated conditions.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20 day EMA near $80.04, an area where buyers have recently re-emerged. Should price close a session below this zone, the bullish tone would likely fade, opening the door to a retest of the mid $70s area where the market previously consolidated.
Upside Path Remains Open Amid Limited Nearby Resistance
With no obvious resistance showing up on current technical readings above the market, room exists for continued gains provided $80.04 holds as support. In the absence of a clear ceiling nearby, traders will probably lean on round number levels and past swing highs to map out where the next meaningful upside targets might sit.
This relatively open technical landscape above current levels means that supply side headlines, particularly any developments regarding the Strait of Hormuz situation, could play an outsized role in determining how far any near term rally extends.
Traders following oil markets closely should treat geopolitical updates as potentially significant catalysts capable of overriding purely technical considerations in the sessions ahead.
Conclusion
WTI Crude Oil finds itself in a cautiously constructive position, supported by ongoing supply disruptions tied to the closure of key Middle East shipping routes even as OPEC’s downward demand revision introduces some longer term uncertainty. The $80.04 level, aligned with the 20 day EMA, stands as the critical near term support that bulls need to defend.
With no clearly defined resistance level immediately overhead, the path higher remains technically open, though geopolitical developments around the Strait of Hormuz are likely to remain the dominant driver of price action.
Traders following WTI strategies should watch closely how price behaves around the $80.04 support level in the coming sessions, as this reaction will likely help determine whether the current recovery has enough momentum to extend further.