Brokers from AchievementsAI dive into the latest Ethereum market picture, as the token continues consolidating within a tight range even as on-chain metrics send mixed signals about the path ahead.
Ethereum Holds Tight Range Amid Weak On-Chain Signals
Ethereum continued to consolidate in the tight $1,800 to $2,000 range on Thursday, with the token currently trading around $1,880. This sideways action comes amid weak signals across several key on-chain metrics that traders typically watch for clues about underlying market conviction.
Looking at the ETH Exchange Netflow figure, which tracks the gap between coins entering and leaving exchanges, sellers appear to hold a slight edge now that its 14 day average has turned positive.
A similar pattern shows up in the Exchange Reserves metric, which has been largely flat over the past week with a slight rise to 15.13 million ETH over the last two days, a move historically associated with increased selling pressure.
Coinbase Premium Stays Negative Despite Stock Market Gains
The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks sentiment among US traders, has stayed underwater and slipped even further to -0.081 over the last two days, even as the broader US stock market moved higher. This divergence between crypto specific sentiment and traditional equity market strength suggests some hesitation remains among US based crypto traders.
In contrast, US spot ETH exchange traded funds recorded $244.9 million in net inflows last week, according to SoSoValue data.
This week has been quieter by comparison, with just $8.9 million trickling out, a far cry from the stronger inflow numbers seen previously. This divergence points to improving sentiment among traditional and institutional investors even as crypto native participants remain more cautious.
Retail Wallets Distribute While Whales Accumulate
The cautious sentiment appears to stem largely from smaller scale investors. Over the past week, wallets holding between 100 and 10,000 ETH offloaded a combined 160,000 ETH, continuing a distribution pattern that has remained consistent since late April.
Whale investors, defined as wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH, have taken the opposite side of this distribution, accumulating roughly 100,000 ETH over the same period. Technical analysts tend to flag this kind of split, since bigger wallets are often seen as playing a longer game compared to smaller, faster moving traders.
Analyst Points To Potential Bottom Formation
According to MorenoDV, a contributor at CryptoQuant, Ethereum could be nearing a fresh bottom, pointing to the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss reading for ETH held on Binance sliding close to the notable -0.35 threshold. According to the analyst, similar readings have historically coincided with major market lows, including the late 2019 and March 2020 bottoms, both 2022 bottoming phases, the 2025 correction, and the most recent drawdown.
The analyst noted that once loss sensitive investors have largely capitulated, the remaining supply tends to become less willing to sell at depressed valuations. As a result, even modest demand could return given the reduced marginal supply left from distributors who have already exited their positions.
Technical Structure Shows Constructive But Measured Bias
Ethereum has seen $30 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, led by $21.1 million in long liquidations, according to Coinglass data. After that shakeout, ETH has kept a modestly bullish tilt on the daily timeframe, staying perched above both the 20 and 50 day EMAs, currently at $1,884 and $1,865.
A mildly positive RSI near 52 and a neutral Stochastic reading around 55 point to steady rather than aggressive upside momentum at this stage. Overhead, the 100 day EMA near $1,922 is the first real obstacle, with a horizontal ceiling around $1,961 just above that, and further out, $2,172 and $2,431 mark a wider zone of expected supply.
Below current price, the 20 and 50 day EMAs offer the first cushion, with firmer buying interest expected near the $1,809 horizontal floor. Should that give way, deeper support sits at $1,701 and $1,507.
Conclusion
Ethereum’s price action reflects a market caught between conflicting signals, with weak on-chain metrics and continued retail distribution offset by steady whale accumulation and improving institutional ETF flows.
The token’s ability to hold above the $1,809 support level while facing resistance near $1,922 and $1,961 will likely determine whether the current consolidation resolves to the upside or gives way to renewed selling pressure.
With MorenoDV’s analysis suggesting the market may be approaching a bottom based on historical NUPL patterns, traders following Ethereum strategies should watch closely how price behaves around these key technical levels in the coming sessions, as a decisive move in either direction would likely signal the next phase of the token’s broader trend.