The technical team at Sylverix reviews the latest WTI picture, as crude oil slips below $97.50 after a seven-day winning streak, while Middle East tensions and a bullish chart keep dip buyers interested.
A Winning Streak Comes To An End
Oil began the week on the defensive. After a strong Friday took the contract to a one-month peak near $99.30, sellers claimed part of that move, and during Asian hours price fell under $97.50, closing out seven consecutive advances.
One reason for the dip is hope for better supply. Washington signed an order that lifts most sanctions and tariffs on Russia, and more Russian barrels reaching the market would ease some of the pressure that has pushed prices higher in recent weeks.
Hormuz Keeps A Risk Premium In Place
Tensions in the Middle East work in the other direction. Over the weekend, three tankers were hit near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s naval force repeated that the passage is shut to anyone without its permission.
A senior Iranian security official also warned that Tehran has prepared a new retaliation plan in case of another US-Israeli attack. Fighting between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels in Yemen has shown little sign of easing, which adds to the sense of risk.
Russia And Ukraine Add Another Layer
Supply worries also come from Eastern Europe. Ukraine launched more than 1,000 drones at Russia on Sunday, one of the largest air attacks of the war, and the strikes sparked fires at an oil export terminal and a storage depot near St. Petersburg.
Damage to Russian export facilities can reduce flows even if sanctions are eased, so the supply effect of Washington’s order may take time to appear. The result is a market that has several reasons to stay supported.
Why Dip Buyers Remain Interested
With so many risks in play, the geopolitical premium is unlikely to vanish quickly. A single down session after a seven-day streak is not unusual, since markets often pause after a long advance.
The question is whether the next dip finds buyers at nearby support, which would keep the broader trend intact. Traders who bought the recent rally may also hold on, because the supply risks have not gone away.
The Technical Picture Stays Bullish
On the four-hour chart, price holds above the 100-period simple moving average and above all the Fibonacci retracement levels used in this analysis. The RSI is near 63, in bullish territory, while the MACD is only slightly above zero.
That combination shows buyers still lead, though the overbought reading from the rally is cooling. A pause is normal in such a setup, and it does not by itself point to a change of trend.
Support Levels Below
Any slide could find first support at the 23.6% retracement near $96.25. Below it, the 38.2% level sits near $94.37, and the 50% retracement is around $92.85.
The 100-period average adds weight to the broader demand area above the 61.8% retracement at $91.33. If price closes under $96.25, a correction toward the mid-$90s becomes more likely.
Resistance Above
The next notable resistance is the swing high near $99.29. Clearing it on a sustained basis would let the current bullish phase extend.
Until that happens, price may keep moving between the retracement levels and the recent high. A daily close above $99.29 would be the clearest signal that buyers are back in control.
Momentum will matter on any retest of that high. If price returns to $99.29 with the RSI still in bullish territory, buyers have a better chance of breaking through. A weak approach, with the RSI fading, would hint at a double top.
Headlines from the Middle East and Russia can change the picture quickly, so traders should watch news alongside the chart.
Managing Risk
Oil reacts quickly to geopolitical headlines, and gaps are possible when news breaks outside normal hours. Smaller position sizes and stop levels set in advance help, and waiting for a close can reduce the risk of reacting to a brief spike.
Conclusion
WTI trades below $97.50 after a seven-day streak, with the uptrend still intact. The $96.25 level is the first support to defend, while $99.29 is the barrier buyers must clear.
Traders following crude oil strategies should watch Middle East headlines, Russian supply news and how price behaves around $96.25, since these factors are likely to decide whether the uptrend resumes or turns into a deeper correction.