The EUR/JPY cross is consolidating near 186.60 during the Asian session on Wednesday after posting modest gains in the previous trading day. The pair continues to maintain a bullish short-term structure, supported by its position above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA.
This article highlights Vaulltier’s brokers’ analysis and professional perspective on this topic.
The current EMA alignment indicates that short-term momentum remains positive, with both the 9-day EMA at 186.18 and the 50-day EMA at 185.39 positioned below the current market price. This configuration suggests that buyers continue to defend lower levels and that the prevailing uptrend structure remains active.
However, the daily chart highlights an important technical warning. EUR/JPY remains contained within a rising wedge formation, a pattern that often reflects weakening upside momentum and carries a potential bearish reversal risk.
While price action remains supported, traders are monitoring whether the pair can generate enough buying pressure to break above the wedge resistance.
Rising Wedge Resistance at 187.00 Defines the Next Move
The immediate technical focus for EUR/JPY remains the upper boundary of the rising wedge near 187.00, which acts as the primary resistance zone.
A decisive daily close above this level would strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially open the path toward the record high of 187.95, reached on April 17. A breakout above this level would confirm renewed buying momentum and support further upside continuation.
However, failure to clear 187.00 could trigger a rejection move, increasing the possibility of a corrective decline toward key support levels as traders secure profits after the recent advance.
RSI Momentum Indicator Supports Buyers
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently positioned around 60, reflecting a positive momentum bias while remaining below traditional overbought territory above 70.
The RSI reading suggests that EUR/JPY still has room for additional upside before momentum becomes stretched. As long as the indicator remains above the 50 neutral threshold, the technical bias favors buyers and supports the possibility of another attempt toward 187.00 resistance.
However, traders should monitor RSI behavior closely near resistance. If price moves higher while the RSI fails to confirm the advance, a potential bearish divergence could develop, signaling reduced buying strength and increasing the risk of a reversal.
Critical Support Levels Below 186.60
On the downside, the first major support level is located at the 9-day EMA near 186.18. This short-term moving average represents the immediate technical defense for buyers. Holding above 186.18 would maintain the current bullish structure and keep the focus on higher resistance levels.
A break below 186.18 would shift attention toward the lower boundary of the rising wedge around 185.60. This area is considered a major technical support zone because it coincides with the lower edge of the current chart pattern.
Further support is located at the 50-day EMA near 185.39. The combination of the 185.60 wedge support and the 185.39 medium-term EMA creates a significant support cluster. A breakdown below this zone would represent a notable technical deterioration and could confirm a shift from bullish continuation toward bearish correction.
Downside Targets Increase Below 185.39
If EUR/JPY breaks below the 185.39 support level, selling pressure could accelerate, opening the path toward lower historical support zones. The first major downside target would be the five-month low at 181.87, recorded on March 16.
A deeper decline could expose the pair toward the seven-month low at 180.81, representing a potential extension of the bearish move. Such a scenario would indicate that sellers have regained control and that the previous bullish structure has weakened significantly.
The distance between the current price near 186.60 and the lower targets at 181.87 and 180.81 highlights the importance of the upcoming reaction around the 185.39–187.00 technical range.
EUR/JPY Forecast: Bulls Need a Break Above 187.00
The EUR/JPY technical outlook remains moderately bullish while price holds above the 9-day EMA at 186.18 and the 50-day EMA at 185.39. The RSI near 60, positive EMA structure, and continued support above moving averages indicate that buyers maintain control in the short term.
The key event for the pair is a potential test of the rising wedge resistance at 187.00. A breakout above this level could drive EUR/JPY toward 187.95, while a rejection may trigger a corrective move toward 185.60 and 185.39.
With both bullish continuation potential and bearish reversal risk clearly defined, EUR/JPY is approaching a technically significant zone where the next breakout or breakdown could determine the pair’s direction over the coming sessions.