The recent apprehension of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, an opposition leader and a significant contender to the throne taken by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, signifies a monumental shift in the politics of Turkey. This in turn will affect the democracy, economy, and foreign relations of the country.
Circumstances Leading up to the Arrest
İmamoğlu effortlessly gained fame in the country after winning the Istanbul mayoral race while defeating Erdoğan’s political party, named The Justice and Development Party (AKP), in 2019. On March 19, 2025, he was arrested for charges of corruption and having connections with terrorist organizations. The Government claims that they have nothing to do with the judiciary system, but critics argue that they are hinting towards a politically fueled challenge to eliminate a pesky challenger before the incoming presidential elections in 2028.
Consequences on a National Scale
The arrest of İmamoğlu was the fuel that set fire to the protests already ignited by discontent across the nation. His supporters view such acts as an intention to abscond democracy and meta-suppress political debate. The protests were mostly peaceful, however, there were reports of violence against police officers. The CHP condemned the arrest, calling it a **coup against our next president** while holding events with the intent of gathering support for İmamoğlu.
The arrest has also deeped the conflict of interests between diverse sections of the society.
The reaction of observers has been that this could further worsen the divide in politics and create additional turmoil. This draws attention to the worrying reality of the democratic framework and law enforcement in Turkey.
Economic Consequences
The political debt conflict has already had a negative impact on the economy. After İmamoğlu’s arrest, there were adverse fluctuations in Turkey’s financial market, where the stock exchange witnessed a huge freefall and the country’s currency, the lira, plummeted to new all time lows. Many stakeholders are skeptical over the economic solidity of the nation and the chances of extended political volatility.
This may worsen the overall projection of economic activity in Turkey and the rate of foreign direct investment and GDP growth. If the instability persists, the lowered confidence from investors may lead to the inability to solve pressing economic issues such as high costs of goods and services along with low job opportunities.
Global Reaction
The events following the arrest show concern from a global perspective with many issues from different nations and international non-governmental organizations condemning Turkey’s approach to democracy. Many argue that the arrest of opposition leaders is an attack on civil society and tolerance and diversity in politics. The EU and the US have called so the Turkish leaders should adhere to the law and provide an unbiased judicial system.
The shift in this aspect may complicate Turkish relations with the western part of the world, which can negatively affect the country in terms of political and trade relations.
Turkey’s actions towards political expression and human rights will largely depend on how the global community responds.
The Consequences of Turkish Politics
İmamoğlu’s arrest puts into perspective what the future of Turkish politics will look like. If the charges against him are proven and results in a guilty verdict, he will be unable to run in future elections, thus changing the opposition landscape. The CHP will likely have to find new leaders or devise new methods to compete against the supremacy of the AKP.
In addition, this event changes how political conflict in Turkey will be handled moving forward. It could limit the ability of the electorate to partake in the political process which further damages democracy. On the other hand, it could allow stronger Liberal Democratic opposition action which encourages the need for civil society to push for further changes.
Final Thoughts
Imamoğlu’s arrest begs the question whether Turkey is gravitating towards an authoritarian state. What happens next will determine the level of control the government has over the political elite and how stable the economy will be, alongside the main question of how democratic Turkey is. The course of events, the answer from domestic stakeholders, and response from external parties will determine the direction in which Turkey moves.