Librrova’s trading desk breaks down the latest XRP setup, as the token hangs on to the $1.30 level while fund flows and derivatives activity point to fading enthusiasm.
XRP Struggles To Build On Its Reclaimed Support
The token is clinging to the $1.30 area on Monday after reclaiming it, yet buyers are not pushing hard. A ceiling near $1.40 has limited every advance, and a drop back under $1.30 remains a real possibility.
Enthusiasm for crypto has faded compared with last month. A widely followed sentiment index sits at 59, still in greed territory, but its reading averaged 71 in September, so conviction is clearly lower than it was.
Sentiment matters because XRP often follows the mood of the wider market. A weaker mood reduces buying interest, which makes it harder to hold gains when resistance appears.
ETF Flows Turn Negative For The First Time In 14 Weeks
For the first time in 14 weeks, US spot XRP funds saw money leave, with $1.8 million withdrawn last week according to SoSoValue. The faster US inflation reading for September led many investors to review their risk exposure.
One week of withdrawals is too little to call a trend. Since launch, these products have still collected a large net total, and their assets remain well above the level of the recent outflow. The coming days will show whether this was only a pause.
Derivatives Activity Is Cooling
Traders have been closing futures positions. Open interest in perpetual contracts has slipped from 2.34 billion XRP at the start of October to about 2.17 billion today. The drop is slow, but it shows weaker retail demand and fewer fresh bets on a recovery.
When open interest falls, the market has less support to carry a rebound, especially when resistance sits close overhead.
A rebound in open interest, together with a firm move above resistance, would show that traders are returning to the market. Until then, the current drift suggests that confidence remains fragile and that rallies may be short-lived.
Moving Averages Cap The Upside
Price remains below the main exponential averages on the daily chart. The nearest is the 100-day line at $1.34, and only a daily close above it would take some pressure off.
Higher up, the 200-day and 50-day lines overlap near $1.38 and create a thicker band of supply, while the SuperTrend line at $1.47 is a far-off target. Until price clears that stack, rallies are likely to meet sellers.
Momentum Readings Lean Negative
The RSI is near 37, and the MACD sits below zero with its sell signal intact. That mix keeps sellers in the game even while price holds $1.30.
An RSI at this level is not yet oversold, so there is still room to fall. The current tools also show no clear support below $1.30, which makes that level more important than usual.
Two Scenarios For The Coming Sessions
The bullish case needs a daily close above $1.34. That would show that buyers can absorb selling at the first average, and it would open the way toward the $1.38 zone and then the SuperTrend level at $1.47.
The bearish case starts with a close below $1.30. Because the chart offers no obvious floor beneath that level, a break could extend quickly, and traders would likely watch ETF flows for confirmation that selling is spreading. Patience around these levels can help avoid false signals.
What Could Change The Picture
A return to steady inflows into XRP funds would be the first sign that institutional demand is recovering. A rise in open interest alongside a move above $1.34 would also suggest that traders are regaining confidence.
Macro news can shift the balance too. Further US inflation data or comments from central bank officials may change risk appetite quickly, and XRP tends to follow the wider market when those moves are large.
Conclusion
XRP trades just above $1.30 with weak momentum, a first weekly ETF outflow in 14 weeks and falling open interest. The $1.30 level is the support to defend, while the $1.34 average is the first hurdle for buyers.
Traders following XRP strategies should watch this week’s ETF flows, open interest and how price behaves around $1.30 and $1.34, since these factors are likely to decide whether the recovery resumes or the decline deepens.