AchievementsAI‘s trading desk breaks down the latest Gold market picture, as technical signals point to growing downside pressure even as central bank demand continues to provide longer term support.
Technical Signals Point To Growing Bearish Momentum
Gold is currently trading at $4,344.22, reflecting a -0.73% daily change as the metal continues to show signs of near term weakness. On the four hour chart, a Three Black Crows pattern has formed within the $4,441.34 to $4,342.11 range, a formation that typically signals a potential downside reversal when it appears after a period of gains.
Adding to the cautious picture, the MACD indicator is declining within negative territory, indicating increasing bearish momentum.
The RSI currently holds near 45 and could decline further from here, while the Money Flow Index is also trending lower, suggesting an outflow of liquidity from the asset. Both the VWAP and the 20 day SMA sit above the current market price, reinforcing the overall bearish pressure weighing on gold in the near term.
Key Support And Resistance Levels To Watch Today
For today’s session, key support levels are seen at $4,313.67, $4,254.97, $4,202.40, $4,157.41, and $4,114.01, with additional levels further below at $4,059.90, $4,007.83, $3,951.68, $3,893.96, and $3,820.00.
On the resistance side, the nearest barrier sits at $4,405, followed by $4,441.34, $4,509.74, $4,576.74, and $4,645.91, with further levels extending to $4,698.44, $4,760.74, $4,821.84, and $4,881.57.
The base scenario favors short positions on increased volume below $4,313.67, with downside targets extending through the listed support levels down to $3,820.00, and a stop loss placed at $4,342.11.
The alternative bullish scenario would require increased volume above $4,405, opening the path toward the listed resistance levels up to $4,881.57, with the same $4,342.11 stop loss level applying to this setup as well.
August 15-16 Non-Trading Days Ahead Of Key Data
Gold markets will observe non-trading days on August 15 and 16, with price action expected to resume and continue its decline on August 17. For that date, the projected daily range spans a low of $4,202.40 and a high of $4,509.74, with an average price around $4,356.07.
Looking further ahead, moderate volatility is expected this week amid the release of FOMC minutes, July industrial production data, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for August, and preliminary manufacturing and services PMI data. For the week spanning August 17 to 23, the projected range sits between a low of $4,114.01 and a high of $4,881.57, with an average price near $4,497.79.
July Marked Gold’s First Monthly Gain Since February
In July, gold gained approximately 0.5%, marking its first monthly increase since February. This modest advance was supported by weaker US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.
Fed leadership stood firm on the inflation fight without signaling any imminent move to hike, though a handful of committee members hinted that more tightening could still be on the table.
According to CME Group data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in September currently stands at 53.9%. Should rates remain unchanged or move higher, this would likely limit the upside potential for gold prices in the coming weeks.
Central Bank Buying Offsets Weaker Demand Elsewhere
Global gold demand fell to 942 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, the lowest level since the third quarter of 2021. Softer jewellery buying alongside continued fund outflows from ETF products were the main culprits behind the drop, and investment demand roughly halved to just above 262 tonnes for the quarter, its lowest mark since early 2024.
Despite this broader softness, central banks continued adding to their gold reserves at a notable pace. According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased nearly 289 tonnes of gold during the quarter, 1.6 times more than in the same period a year earlier.
Conclusion
Gold’s near term technical picture leans bearish, with a Three Black Crows pattern, a declining MACD, and softening RSI and MFI readings all pointing to the possibility of further downside below the $4,313.67 support level. Should this scenario play out, price could extend its decline through multiple support levels toward $3,820.00.
Longer term, however, the fundamental backdrop remains more nuanced, with robust central bank buying continuing to offset weaker investment and jewellery demand.
Traders following Gold strategies should watch closely for volume confirmation around the $4,313.67 and $4,405 levels in the coming sessions, as this is likely to determine whether the current bearish setup extends further or gives way to a renewed bullish attempt toward the upper resistance levels.