The EUR/JPY cross remains firmly supported after posting modest gains in the previous session, trading around 185.80 during Asian hours on Friday. Price action continues to reflect a bullish technical bias, with the cross holding above the 185.50 area and remaining inside an ascending channel on the daily chart.
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The persistence of this upward-sloping formation suggests that buyers continue to have control over the broader trend. As long as EUR/JPY remains within the channel and above its key moving-average supports, the technical setup favors further appreciation rather than an immediate reversal.
The current structure matters as the pair trades near key technical levels. Holding above them could drive buyers toward higher resistance, while a breakdown would weaken the bullish setup.
Nine-Day EMA Keeps Bulls in Control
From a trend perspective, EUR/JPY continues to trade above both the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-period EMA. The shorter-term average remains positioned above the longer-term measure, creating a positive moving-average alignment that reinforces the underlying bullish trend.
The nine-day EMA stands near 185.39, making it an important short-term gauge of momentum. With spot prices holding above this indicator, traders may interpret temporary declines toward the moving average as potential buy-the-dip opportunities, provided the level continues to act as support.
Further below, the 50-day EMA at 184.81 represents a deeper layer of trend support. The separation between the two EMAs is also significant: the short-term average being above the longer-term average indicates that recent price momentum remains stronger than the medium-term trend.
Consequently, a sustained move above 185.50 would preserve the immediate bullish structure, while a daily close below the nine-day EMA would be an early warning that upside momentum is losing strength.
187.95 Becomes the Key Upside Target
On the upside, the most significant near-term objective is the all-time high of 187.95, recorded on April 17. A successful break above this level would represent a fresh bullish signal because it would place EUR/JPY in uncharted territory relative to the recent price structure.
If buyers manage to establish a sustained move above 187.95, attention could turn toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 188.80. This level represents the next major technical objective based on the current chart formation.
A move toward 188.80 would therefore require two important developments: first, EUR/JPY must maintain its position above the short-term support zone; second, buyers must overcome the historical resistance around 187.95 with sufficient momentum.
185.70 Provides Immediate Support
Despite the bullish outlook, downside risks remain and should not be overlooked. The first important support area is around 185.70, corresponding to the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
This level is particularly relevant because a sustained break below the channel would challenge the prevailing bullish structure. A decline through 185.70 could signal that buyers are losing control and that the pair is entering a deeper corrective phase.
Below this level, the nine-day EMA at 185.39 provides the next layer of support, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.81. Together, these levels form a significant confluence support zone.
As long as EUR/JPY remains above this area, the broader bullish setup remains technically viable. Conversely, a decisive daily close below the 50-day EMA would substantially weaken the current trend structure.
Bearish Scenario Opens Toward 179.37
A clear breakdown beneath the 185.70–184.81 support zone would shift the technical outlook toward a more defensive stance. Such a move would indicate that the ascending channel has failed and that the recent bullish sequence may be reversing.
In that scenario, EUR/JPY could initially experience increased selling pressure before potentially extending its decline toward the nine-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.
The distance between current levels and 179.37 means such a move would represent a significant deterioration in the technical picture. Nevertheless, this remains a secondary scenario while price holds above the channel and key EMAs.
EUR/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Above Key Supports
Overall, the EUR/JPY technical outlook remains bullish while the cross holds above the 185.70 channel support, the 185.39 nine-day EMA, and the 184.81 50-day EMA.
The combination of a positive ascending channel, favorable EMA alignment, and an RSI near 59 indicates that buyers retain the upper hand and that the cross has room to extend its advance.
The immediate bullish objective is the 187.95 all-time high, while a successful breakout could expose the 188.80 channel resistance. Conversely, a sustained break below the key support cluster would invalidate much of the current bullish structure and raise the risk of a deeper decline toward 179.37.