Noqana’s trading desk breaks down the latest copper picture, as the metal trades close to its September record while easing rate fears and mining disruptions in Chile support the rally.
Copper Moves Back Toward Its Record
Copper climbed toward $6.80 per pound on Tuesday, roughly 2% below the record it set in September. On the London Metal Exchange the metal gained 0.5% to about $6.63 per pound. That leaves it around 17% higher than at the start of 2026, a gain that shows how strong the year has been for industrial metals.
Two drivers explain the latest push. Worries about another US rate increase have faded, and new supply problems have hit mines in Chile.
Rate Hike Fears Fade
The Federal Reserve lifted rates by 25 basis points in September, its first increase since 2023, which took the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. Since then traders have grown calmer. FedWatch data shows an 80.6% probability that the central bank holds at its October 28 meeting, against 19.4% for another hike.
A pause matters for copper because industrial metals tend to struggle when borrowing costs climb. Even so, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has said that further increases before the end of 2026 remain possible, so the relief may not last.
The US inflation report due on Wednesday, October 14 was the next test. A hotter reading could raise pressure on the Fed and weigh on the metal, while a softer one could help copper challenge its record.
Mine Disruptions Tighten Supply
Supply news has added a second layer of support. A mudslide struck the open pit at Codelco’s El Teniente mine in Chile on Sunday, killing two contractors. Codelco partly halted operations and blamed heavy rain. El Teniente is the largest mine owned by Codelco, the biggest copper producer in the world, and a collapse at the same site killed six miners in July 2025.
Other operations have also run into trouble. Escondida, the largest copper mine in the world, briefly stopped work in September, and the union at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine says its strike will weigh on output from November. In Indonesia, the Grasberg mine run by Freeport-McMoRan is operating at about 67% of normal capacity, with a full recovery not expected before the end of 2027.
Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley expects a copper deficit of about 600,000 tons this year. Shortages of this kind fueled the move to a record in September. Longer term, Ivan Bebek, CEO of Coppernico Metals, argues that demand could jump 50% by 2040.
Technical Picture Points Toward $7
The chart supports the bullish story. Since late June, copper has repeatedly bounced whenever it dropped toward a rising support line, and its average price over the past 100 trading days has helped limit deeper declines. Both signals point to $6.55 as an area where buyers could step in again.
Copper has also climbed back above $6.70, a level it struggled to clear earlier this year. The next obstacle is the September record near $6.95. A break above it would put $7 in view, a gain of about 3% from current levels.
Until price closes decisively above that record, traders may prefer to wait for confirmation, since a failed attempt could send the metal back toward support.
Signs The Rally Is Losing Steam
Despite the positive trend, some warning signs have appeared. The Relative Strength Index is near 55, which suggests buyers still have the advantage, although momentum has weakened since August. The chart also shows copper moving inside a narrowing upward range, a pattern that can sometimes come before a correction.
If prices fall, $6.55 is the first major support to watch. A break below it could send copper toward $6.31, which would damage the current bullish structure and suggest the record may stay out of reach for now.
Conclusion
Copper trades near $6.80 with a record high only a few percent away, helped by easing Fed hike expectations, mining disruptions in Chile and a projected deficit for the year. The $6.95 record is the key resistance, with $7 the next target if buyers clear it, while $6.55 is the support to defend.
Traders following copper strategies should watch US inflation data and any news from the major mines, since these two factors are likely to decide whether the metal breaks to new highs or slips back toward $6.31.