The technical team at Financial Real Time reviews the latest USD/CAD picture, as the pair revisits its highest levels of the year and an Elliott Wave count suggests the advance may not be finished.
Pair Climbs Back To The Year’s Peak
After a steady climb, USD/CAD has returned to the top of its 2026 range. At about 1.4211, price rests on a band of support that begins at 1.4200 and extends down to 1.4125.
Wavetraders analyst Gregor Horvat has followed the bounce from the August 26 low for several weeks. In his view the advance has the character of an impulse, not a correction, and that distinction shapes what the market may do from here.
Why An Impulsive Count Points To More Gains
Elliott Wave theory builds an impulse out of five separate waves. Horvat’s tally of the current rally stops short of that number, so he treats the sequence as unfinished. If he is right, the pair still has room to advance before this move runs its course.
A corrective phase would look different, usually unfolding in three waves and lacking the same directional drive. The impulsive character of the rally is therefore the main reason the analyst expects buyers to remain in control over the medium term, even if the path higher is uneven.
Traders who follow this approach usually wait for the market to confirm the count before acting on it. A bounce from support, followed by a push above the recent high, would strengthen the argument for continuation. Without that confirmation, the wave count remains only one possible reading of the chart, not a certainty.
The Pullback Scenario And The Support Zone
Price is currently trading within that support band. Should the present dip prove to be a simple retracement inside the larger uptrend, buyers could return here and start a new rebound.
Few trends advance without interruption. Short retreats are part of how an impulse develops, and they often restore the momentum needed for the next leg. A shallow dip that holds the support band would fit the bullish scenario rather than damage it.
1.4000 Marks The Line Between Right And Wrong
Round-number support at 1.4000 is what the whole view depends on. Above it, the structure favors another leg higher once the pullback ends. Below it, a new wave count would be needed, since the rise would no longer be following the expected impulsive path.
Two reference points frame the whole idea: the support band shows where a dip could end, and 1.4000 shows where the view fails. Defined boundaries like these give traders a plan, which tends to be worth more than guessing every small swing.
US Inflation Data Adds Volatility
The US Consumer Price Index, scheduled for October 14 at 14:30 CEST, is a major source of risk for the pair. Depending on the result, price could slice through the support band or rebound sharply from it, so wide swings are likely in both directions.
Because the report shapes expectations for Federal Reserve policy, it can move the dollar quickly. A hotter reading would tend to support USD/CAD, while a softer one could deepen the pullback toward the lower edge of support. Position sizing and stop placement matter more than usual around such releases.
The Canadian side of the pair also deserves attention. Oil prices, Canadian economic data and any signal from the Bank of Canada can move the loonie independently of the dollar, which means USD/CAD does not always follow US news alone.
A rise in crude would usually support the Canadian currency and slow the advance, while softer domestic data would tend to weaken it. Traders should therefore watch both sides of the pair, not only the US calendar or dollar moves.
Conclusion
USD/CAD is back at its 2026 highs near 1.4211, and an impulsive wave count suggests that the advance may continue after a pause. The 1.4200 to 1.4125 zone is the first place to watch for buyers, with 1.4000 serving as the level that would invalidate the bullish view.
Traders following USD/CAD strategies should watch how price reacts to the US inflation data and whether the support zone holds, since a firm hold would keep the path open toward fresh highs, while a break below 1.4000 would call for a more cautious approach.