West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extends its advance for the third consecutive session, trading around $82.90-$83.00 during the Asian session and remaining close to the nearly two-week high reached recently.
The price structure continues to favor buyers, with WTI holding above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $80.73 and maintaining a sequence of higher short-term lows.
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The immediate technical focus is the $82.93-$83.00 resistance zone, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August decline converges with a major psychological level.
A sustained break above $83.00, preferably confirmed by a daily close, would strengthen the recovery structure and open the way toward $85.13, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
The market remains in a bullish corrective phase after the July-August decline. Above $80.73, downside pressure should stay contained, with dips likely attracting buyers.
Geopolitical Risk Adds Fundamental Support
The technical structure is reinforced by a positive fundamental backdrop. Persistent tensions involving Iran, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, and renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping raise concerns about disruptions to regional energy flows.
Any disruption to Hormuz could create a supply-risk premium, while Red Sea security issues may increase transportation costs and market uncertainty. For WTI, these factors support the breakout scenario, with further upside depending on whether buyers turn the $82.93–$83.00 resistance zone into support.
Fibonacci Levels Define the Price Structure
From a Fibonacci perspective, WTI has recovered beyond the 38.2% retracement at $80.73, which represents the first major technical threshold in the current rebound. The ability to remain above this level indicates that the recovery has retained sufficient momentum to challenge higher retracement zones.
The 50% Fibonacci retracement at $82.93 is now the key upside barrier. This level is especially important because it sits almost directly at the $83.00 round-number resistance. A decisive move above $83.00 would therefore represent both a Fibonacci breakout and a psychological breakout.
Above $83.00, the next objective is the 61.8% retracement at $85.13. This level is widely monitored as a potential continuation target and could initially generate selling pressure. If WTI clears $85.13, the next major Fibonacci resistance appears at $88.27, representing the 78.6% retracement.
A sustained move beyond $88.27 would leave the $92.26 cycle high as the next major upside reference. A rally from $82.93 to $92.26 would represent an advance of approximately $9.33, or around 11.3%, highlighting the significance of the current breakout zone.
RSI and MACD Confirm Positive Momentum
Momentum indicators continue to support the bullish scenario. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64.63, well above the neutral 50.00 threshold. The reading indicates that bullish momentum remains dominant while staying below the conventional 70.00 overbought threshold.
The RSI therefore leaves some room for additional upside before momentum reaches historically stretched territory. A move through 70.00 would indicate stronger acceleration, although it would simultaneously increase the risk of a short-term consolidation or pullback.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also remains in positive territory, confirming that upside momentum is still developing. If the MACD continues to hold above its zero line while WTI breaks through $83.00, the technical confirmation for a continuation move toward $85.13 would become stronger.
$80.73 Is the Critical Bullish Defense
On the downside, $80.73 remains the first level that bulls must defend. This 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is currently the most important short-term support. A sustained hold above it keeps the recovery structure intact and preserves the possibility of an upside breakout.
A clear break below $80.73 would weaken the immediate bullish setup and expose the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $78.00. The distance from $80.73 to $78.00 is approximately $2.73, making this the next logical downside objective if selling pressure accelerates.
Below $78.00, the $73.60 swing low becomes the key structural support. A decline from $82.93 to $73.60 would amount to approximately $9.33, or 11.2%, and would materially undermine the current recovery structure.
WTI Bulls Await the $83.00 Breakout
The technical bias remains bullish while WTI trades above $80.73, with $82.93-$83.00 representing the decisive breakout zone. A confirmed move above $83.00 would target $85.13, followed by $88.27 and potentially $92.26.
Conversely, rejection near $83.00 followed by a break below $80.73 would shift attention toward $78.00. For now, the combination of positive RSI at 64.63, bullish MACD, Fibonacci support, and geopolitical supply risks keeps the balance tilted toward further upside, with a sustained break above $83.00 remaining the key technical signal for the next leg higher.